Government measures, including the Approved List of Cell Manufacturers, aim to enhance local manufacturing capabilities while experts caution about potential profitability challenges amid increasing capacity.
Why it matters: India's shift to domestic cells will trigger a secondary glut of Chinese modules in Europe while providing you a scalable, non-Chinese supply alternative by 2027.
The Great Diversification Play
For years, European installers have been caught between a rock and a hard place: the unbeatable pricing of JinkoSolar or JA Solar and the growing regulatory nightmare of the EU’s Forced Labour Regulation. India’s aggressive move to double its domestic cell production via the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) isn't just an internal policy—it’s a global supply chain reset that will land on European shores by 2027.
The 'Secondary Glut' Warning
When India successfully ring-fences its 50GW+ annual demand for local giants like Adani Green Energy and Reliance Industries, the Chinese cells originally destined for the subcontinent will need a home. We’ve seen this pattern before: in 2023, when US customs (UFLPA) tightened, inventory flooded Rotterdam, crashing module prices by nearly 50%. As India closes its doors to protect its PLI (Production Linked Incentive) investments, expect another wave of Chinese oversupply to hit Europe, temporarily padding installer margins while further strangling what’s left of European manufacturing.
A Viable Third Way
The real opportunity here isn't just cheaper Chinese modules. By FY27, Indian manufacturers will have the scale to export aggressively. For a mid-sized German or Dutch project developer, the "Made in India" label is becoming a strategic hedge. It offers a price point that Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA)-compliant European modules can't match, without the ESG baggage of the Xinjiang supply chain. If you aren't already vetting Indian Tier-1 partners for your 2026/27 pipeline, you're leaving your supply security entirely in Beijing's hands.