The government of Mexico has targeted to install 22GW of new renewables by 2030, of which 12GW will be from solar PV.
Why it matters: Mexico's solar potential is being throttled by policy; European developers should avoid state tenders and focus on private C&I projects for the 'nearshoring' manufacturing boom.
Let’s call a spade a spade: 12GW of solar by 2030 for a country with Mexico’s world-class irradiance is an embarrassment, not a breakthrough. For context, Germany—a country with the solar profile of a damp basement—installed over 14GW in 2023 alone. If you’re a developer in Madrid or Berlin looking at these headline numbers as a "massive growth opportunity," you’re reading the map upside down.
The Ghost of Iberdrola Past
European giants like Iberdrola and Enel have spent the last five years being treated like intruders by the Mexican administration, which has consistently favored the state-owned utility, CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad). While incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum brings a climate resume, this 12GW target suggests she remains tethered to the "CFE-first" ideology. For EU installers, this isn't a call to open an office in Monterrey; it’s a signal that the Mexican market remains a utility-scale hostage situation where the state dictates the pace of the transition.
The real play in Mexico isn't the government-led "Plan Sonora" mega-projects. It’s the Distributed Generation (DG) limit, currently capped at a measly 500kW. If the administration were serious about hitting 2030 targets, they would raise that cap to 5MW, mimicking the Brazilian model that ignited their C&I sector. Until then, the utility-scale market will be a bottleneck of litigation and transmission delays.
The Money Angle: Mexico is currently seeing a massive "nearshoring" boom as US companies pull manufacturing out of China. These factories need green electrons to meet ESG mandates, but the CFE grid can't provide them. If you are an EPC with experience in microgrids and private PPAs, there is money to be made behind-the-meter. But if you're waiting for state tenders? You'll be waiting until 2030 just for the permit.